John Bates
WAS · TE
53%
clears 1.0 targets
Served forecast
Mixture P10
0.0
Mixture P50
1.0
Mixture P90
3.0
Mixture mean
1.0
← Matchups
Sun, Oct 4 · 9:30 AM ET · Frozen Sep 29
IND
Indianapolis
Colts
62%
AT
WAS
Washington
Commanders
38%
Lean
IND 62%
Total
47.3
1-score
43%
R4
28%
WAS controls
R1
28%
IND controls
R3
22%
One-score game
R2
21%
IND controls
Daniel Jones
IND · QB · pass attempts
Served forecast
51%
clears 32 pass attempts
Floor
22
Median
32
Ceiling
43
How the passing volume is built
32
Attempts
15.1
Completions
His four scripts
Conditional mean vs mixture
Weighted game environments. Scores describe each cluster's center, not an exact prediction.
Mixture mass · Served forecast
53% of the mixture clears 1 targets
P10 0.0P50 1.01.0+P90 3.0
Mixture chain
How the receiving volume is built
31
Team targets
Offense passing volume
1
His share
3% of the targets
81%
Catch rate
0.8 receptions
6.3
Yards / target
Served gain
6.5 receiving yards
Same inheritance
WAS pass · script swing